U.S. Senate Election 2022
The 2022 U.S. Senate race served as a pivotal test for Alaska’s new electoral system, which features:
The Top-Four "Jungle" Primary: A single nonpartisan primary ballot where all 19 candidates competed, regardless of party, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election.
Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV): A system allowing voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate secures a 50% majority in the first round, lower-ranking candidates are eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters' secondary preferences until a majority winner emerges.
Breakdown of the Infographics
1. Electoral Shifts & Controversy
Democratic Support Plummets: Highlights a 30.5% drop in Democratic support, falling from 41.2% in 2020 to 10.7% in 2022.
Intra-Party Negativity: Focuses on the intense, prolonged seven-month rivalry between Republican incumbents/challengers Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka, alongside unprecedented campaign spending by outside groups.
Strategic "Gaming" & Criticism: Outlines controversies surrounding RCV. Critics and figures like Donald Trump labeled the system "rigged" or an "illusion of choice," arguing it fostered deep divisiveness among candidates of the same party rather than civility.
2. The Path to Victory
These three diagrams illustrate the mechanical breakdown of how Lisa Murkowski won through the multi-stage RCV process:
Phase 1: The Top-Four Primary
Out of 19 candidates on a single ballot, 32.16% voter turnout was recorded (~192,000 voters).
Lisa Murkowski (45.05%) and Kelly Tshibaka (38.55%) led the pack, creating a dominant two-way Republican general election race alongside Democrat Patricia Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley.
Phase 2: General Election – Round 1 (First Preferences)
In the November general election, neither Murkowski (43.37%) nor Tshibaka (42.64%) reached the mandatory 50% majority threshold, triggering ranked-choice tabulation. Democrat Patricia Chesbro captured 10.74%.
Phase 3: Tabulation & Elimination Rounds
Round 2: Buzz Kelley was eliminated, and his votes were redistributed, tightening the race between Murkowski and Tshibaka to a virtual tie (~44% each).
Round 3 (Final Result): Patricia Chesbro was eliminated. Crucially, Murkowski captured roughly 70% of Chesbro's eliminated Democratic votes (+20,543 votes).
This "Democratic crossover boost" vaulted Murkowski to a final majority win of 53.69% (135,972 total votes) over Kelly Tshibaka’s 46.31%.
The Jungle Primary Field: The special primary election featured a crowded field of candidates on a single ballot (such as the 48 or more candidates shown competing), where Mary Peltola finished fourth.
Advancing to the General Election: Despite finishing behind independent Al Gross in the primary, Peltola advanced to the final ranked-choice general election stage alongside Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. (Note: Al Gross subsequently withdrew from the race under circumstances later ruled by the Alaska Supreme Court to have improperly bypassed state law).
First Round Performance: In the first round of ranked-choice voting, Peltola led the field with 75,761 votes (40.2%), ahead of Sarah Palin (31.2%) and Nick Begich III (28.5%).
The Decisive Elimination Round: Because no candidate cleared the 50% threshold in the first round, third-place finisher Nick Begich III was eliminated.
Crossover and Transferred Votes: Begich's supporters' second choices were redistributed. While a majority of his votes transferred to Sarah Palin, enough votes transferred to Peltola—combined with 11,222 exhausted votes—to push her past the majority mark.
Final Victory: Peltola secured the election winning 91,206 votes (51.5%) of the final active votes compared to Palin's 48.5%, successfully capturing the congressional seat.